Efficient frontiers for short-term sales of spot and forward wind energy in Texas - l'unam - université nantes angers le mans
Article Dans Une Revue Energy Journal Année : 2024

Efficient frontiers for short-term sales of spot and forward wind energy in Texas

K. H. Cao
  • Fonction : Auteur
H. Qi
C. K. Woo
  • Fonction : Auteur
J. Zarnikau
  • Fonction : Auteur
R. Li
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Texas’s windfarm construction continues unabated, despite wind energy’s cannibalization effect on wind generation’s investment incentive and the rising popularity of short-term wind power purchase agreements (PPAs). Using ERCOT’s monthly data for Jan-2011 to Dec-2021, we develop spot energy price forecasts by time of day (TOD) and their standard deviations to derive the efficient frontiers (EFs) for spot and forward energy sales of a risk-averse windfarm developer under a short-term wind PPA of not more than 10 years. These EFs reveal a windfarm’s operating revenue forecast tends to increase with the PPA’s forward energy prices. Further, the windfarm’s revenue risk and forecast move in tandem, akin to the risk-return relationship rooted in Markowitz’s portfolio theory. Hence, the developer tends to sell 100% (< 100%) of the windfarm’s energy output at forward energy prices that are above (below) spot energy price forecasts by TOD for recovering wind generation’s levelized cost of energy.
Fichier sous embargo
Fichier sous embargo
0 11 14
Année Mois Jours
Avant la publication
dimanche 19 octobre 2025
Fichier sous embargo
dimanche 19 octobre 2025
Connectez-vous pour demander l'accès au fichier

Dates et versions

hal-04761181 , version 1 (31-10-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

K. H. Cao, H. Qi, C. K. Woo, J. Zarnikau, R. Li. Efficient frontiers for short-term sales of spot and forward wind energy in Texas. Energy Journal, 2024, ⟨https://doi.org/10.1177/01956574241287500⟩. ⟨hal-04761181v1⟩

Collections

AUDENCIA UNAM
0 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More